The Social Security Administration (SSA) will officially announce the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 15, 2025. This update will reveal the exact percentage increase that Social Security beneficiaries will receive starting in January 2026.
The timing is aligned with the release of third-quarter CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which serves as the basis for the COLA calculation each year.
Social Security COLA
The Social Security COLA is an annual adjustment to benefits intended to help recipients keep pace with inflation. It is based on the percentage rise in the CPI-W, which measures average price changes for a specific set of goods and services.
If the CPI-W rises compared to the previous year’s third quarter, benefits increase; if it stays the same or declines, the COLA may be zero—though that’s rare.
How the SSA Calculates COLA
The COLA is calculated by:
- Taking the average CPI-W for July, August, and September of the current year
- Comparing it to the average CPI-W for the same months of the last year when a COLA was in effect
- Determining the percentage difference and rounding it to the nearest tenth of a percent
Any increase takes effect in January of the following year.
2026 COLA Projections
Current forecasts for the 2026 COLA range from 2.4% to 2.7%, with the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimating 2.6%. Some experts suggest a high end of 2.7%, reflecting persistent inflation from:
- Rising food and housing costs
- Higher vehicle maintenance expenses
- Tariff-related price increases in 2025
This range is consistent with the historical average COLA over the past 25 years.
Key Dates for the 2026 COLA
- July–September 2025: Inflation data (CPI-W) is collected
- October 15, 2025: SSA officially announces the 2026 COLA percentage
- January 2026: New benefit amounts begin appearing in Social Security checks
Millions of Americans depend on these payments, so the October announcement is a major event for retirement and budget planning.
Why the COLA Matters
A 2.6% COLA may offer modest relief, but healthcare costs and other expenses could limit the real-world impact. By tracking the announcement and understanding your benefits, you can better plan for the year ahead.
FAQs
When will the 2026 COLA be announced?
October 15, 2025.
When will the COLA take effect?
January 2026 Social Security payments.
What is the expected COLA percentage?
Between 2.4% and 2.7%.
How is COLA calculated?
By comparing third-quarter CPI-W data year over year.
Could the COLA be zero?
It’s rare, but possible if inflation is flat or negative.
